Analysis: Caribbean at Keppel Bay

I was thinking of a project to analyse. Scanning through the districts, analysing the masterplan and developments on the island, Caribbean and the Keppel area came up.

Project Info
Address: 4 - 46 KEPPEL BAY DRIVE
Type: APARTMENT / CONDO
District: 04
Year Completed: 2004
Tenure: 99 Years Leasehold wef 16 Aug 1999
Total Units: 969
Developer: KEPPEL BAY PTE LTD

Site plan

Floor plan

Specs

• Living room: Marble
• Bed room: Timber skirting
• Kitchen: Ceramic Tiles
• External wall: Spray textured coating finish and/or emulsion paint
  Audio/video intercom via webpad, Web camera, WAP enabled, WLAN, Proximity locking system, Safe, Kitchen cabinet, Wardrobe, Aircon
• Total Units: 969 in 22 blocks
• 2 Rooms (208 units): 78 to 86 sq.m. (840 to 926 sq.ft.)
• 2 Rooms +PES (28 units): 100 to 118 sq.m. (1076 to 1270 sq.ft.)
• 2 Rooms +PES+Study (19 units): 136 to 146 sq.m. (1464 to 1572 sq.ft.)
• 3 Rooms (302 units): 112 to 122 sq.m. (1206 to 1313 sq.ft.)
• 3 Rooms +Open Terrace (13 units): 116 to 126 sq.m. (1249 to 1356 sq.ft.)
• 3 Rooms +PES (43 units): 124 to 170 sq.m. (1335 to 1830 sq.ft.)
• 3 Rooms +Study (197 units): 123 to 157 sq.m. (1324 to 1690 sq.ft.)
• 3 Rooms +PES+Study (8 units): 141 to 212 sq.m. (1518 to 2282 sq.ft.)

My Analysis:

• waterfront living, with yacht berths. How many are there in SGP? Keppel Bay area and Sentosa only. Don't tell me about East Coast as they are NOT waterfront. Tanjong Rhu area comes close and its part of the Kallang Riverside initiative.
• Caribbean, Reflections and the 2 99LH plots owned by Keppel beside Caribbean and Keppel Island, including the Keppel club. Keppel has not launched plot 3,4 and 6 which should have 307, 234 and 94 units,while they will launch 382 units at Reflections but dont know when. These statistics are from http://www.kepcorp.com/kcl_eAR/2006/features/keppelbay.asp

• Do you think Keppel will screw themselves up and launch these new plots to disadvantage Caribbean and Reflections? Reflections already sold from range of 13xx to >2000 psf.
  
• nearest development to Sentosa IR that's outside Sentosa
  
• Only luxurious development till 2012 when Reflections TOP
  
• beside Vivo City
• near MRT
• huge project. Typically, huge projects are popular and maintenance fees are lower. Though 969 is a tad too large for me.
• good rental yield during recession. Q1 2009 rental data from URA shows that the 25th, Median and 75th Percentile are 4.98, 5.44, 6.03 respectively. On a conservative front, the 25th percentile was only lower than the top projects of THE PIER AT ROBERTSON and ICON.
• But I dont like this. Its 99 tenure starts from 1999!!

Ok, here's the most interesting part. Price trends... I use 2007 Q1 as reference as that's the last quarter where it's PPI of 136.5 is similar to 139.9 in 2009 Q1.

1. Latest transactions in 2009: from 900-1000 in Q1 and 1100-1300 in Q2!

1. Peak (all): 1757 for a 2077 sqft in June 2008
   
2. Low (all): 600 during launch
   
3. Median (all): 850-860
   
4. 2007 Q1 (all): 800-1300
   

1. 2/3 bedder peak: 1607
   
2. 2/3 bedder low: 600
   
3. 2/3 bedder median: 850
   
4. 2007 Q1 (2/3 bedder): 900-1100

1. 2 bedder peak: 1607
   
2. 2 bedder low: 750
   
3. 2 bedder median: 870
   
4. 2007 Q1 (2 bedder): 890-1100

Why 2/3 bedder? Because these are likely the most popular sizes.

Exciting, exciting, exciting!! Or is it?